02/11 Pomeroy Point Spreads

After half a week of action Kansas increased its margins with an impressive win at Texas along with other top teams struggling.

Kansas favored by:

2 points: Duke
4 points: Syracuse
5 points: West Virginia, Wisconsin
6 points: Purdue
7 points: Kentucky, Brigham Young, Maryland, Kansas State, Ohio State
8 points: Villanova, Texas, Missouri, Georgetown, Baylor
9 points: Old Dominion, Marquette
10 points: Clemson, Utah St, California, Virginia Tech, Florida St, Pittsburgh, Dayton, Butler, Georgia Tech

Other Notables:
11 points: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Michigan St, Northern Iowa, Louisville, Temple, Texas A&M
12 points: New Mexico, Mississippi St, UNLV
13 points: Illinois, Florida, Gonzaga, Connecticut
14 points: Cornell, Memphis
16 points: North Carolina

Pretty amazing how big the separation is this year. The biggest drop-off gap is between Duke and Syracuse with 2.80 points separating them, then the next biggest is between Kansas and Duke with 1.65 points and then finally the third big gap is between Wisconsin and Purdue with 1.48 points separating them. Then there are only fractions of points separating all the other teams as you go down the point margins.

02//08 AP Poll odds to go undefeated this week

Here are the odds for each AP top 25 team to go undefeated this week according to KenPom.

RANK	TEAM	RECORD
1	Kansas (55)	22-1
Chance to go undefeated this week: 58%
This Week: 2/8 at Texas (60%), 2/13 vs. Iowa State (97%)
2	Syracuse (8)	23-1
Chance to go undefeated this week: 77%
This Week: 2/10 vs. Connecticut (91%), 2/14 vs. Louisville (85%)
3	Kentucky (2)	22-1
Chance to go undefeated this week: 68%
This Week: 2/9 vs. Alabama (90%), 2/13 vs. Tennessee (76%)
4	Villanova	20-2
Chance to go undefeated this week: 21%
This Week: 2/8 at West Virginia (23%), 2/13 vs. Providence (90%)
5	West Virginia	19-3
Chance to go undefeated this week: 48%
This Week: 2/8 vs. Villanova (77%), 2/12 at Pittsburgh (62%)
6	Purdue	19-3
Chance to go undefeated this week: 45%
This Week: 2/9 at Michigan State (46%), 2/13 vs. Iowa (97%)
7	Georgetown	17-5
Chance to go undefeated this week: 60%
This Week: 2/9 at Providence (69%), 2/14 at Rutgers (87%)
8	Duke	19-4
Chance to go undefeated this week: 66%
This Week: 2/10 at North Carolina (81%), 2/13 vs. Maryland (81%)
9	Kansas State	19-4
Chance to go undefeated this week: 93%
This Week: 2/13 vs. Colorado (93%)
10	Michigan State	19-5
Chance to go undefeated this week: 41%
This Week: 2/9 vs. Purdue (54%), 2/13 at Penn State (76%)
11	Wisconsin	18-5
Chance to go undefeated this week: 87%
This Week: 2/9 vs. Illinois (90%), 2/13 vs. Indiana (97%)
12	Tennessee	18-4
Chance to go undefeated this week: 9%
This Week: 2/9 at Vanderbilt (39%), 2/13 at Kentucky (24%)
13	Ohio State	18-6
Chance to go undefeated this week: 50%
This Week: 2/10 at Indiana (85%), 2/14 at Illinois (59%)
14	Texas	19-4
Chance to go undefeated this week: 37%
This Week: 2/8 vs. Kansas (40%), 2/13 vs. Nebraska (92%)
15	New Mexico	21-3
Chance to go undefeated this week: 23%
This Week: 2/10 at UNLV (32%), 2/13 at Utah (72%)
16	Gonzaga	19-4
Chance to go undefeated this week: 63%
This Week: 2/11 vs. Saint Mary's (66%), 2/13 vs. San Diego (96%)
17	Brigham Young	22-3
Chance to go undefeated this week: 99%
This Week: 2/13 vs. Air Force (99%)
18	Butler	20-4
Chance to go undefeated this week: 74%
This Week: 2/8 vs. Loyola (IL) (97%), 2/11 at Youngstown State (94%), 2/13 at Cleveland State (81%)
19	Northern Iowa	21-2
Chance to go undefeated this week: 60%
This Week: 2/10 at Drake (80%), 2/13 at Bradley (75%)
20	Georgia Tech	17-6
Chance to go undefeated this week: 20%
This Week: 2/10 at Miami (FL) (52%), 2/13 at Wake Forest (39%)
21	Temple	19-5
Chance to go undefeated this week: 74%
This Week: 2/13 vs. Rhode Island (74%)
22	Vanderbilt	17-5
Chance to go undefeated this week: 59%
This Week: 2/9 vs. Tennessee (61%), 2/13 vs. LSU (96%)
23	UNLV	19-4
Chance to go undefeated this week: 31%
This Week: 2/10 vs. New Mexico (68%), 2/13 at San Diego State (45%)
24	Baylor	17-5
Chance to go undefeated this week: 43%
This Week: 2/10 at Nebraska (70%), 2/13 vs. Missouri (62%)
25	Pittsburgh	17-6
Chance to go undefeated this week: 37%
This Week: 2/8 vs. Robert Morris (97%), 2/12 vs. West Virginia (38%)

Most likely to lose:

12. Tennessee 9%
20. Georgia Tech 20%
4. Villanova 21%
15. New Mexico 23%
23. UNLV 31%
14 Texas 37%
25. Pittsburgh 37%
10. Michigan St 41%
24. Baylor 43%
6. Purdue 45%
5. West Virginia 48%
13. Ohio State 50%

02/06 Updated odds going into the weekend

Updated odds to go undefeated this week heading into to the weekend.

5 losers this week so far: Michigan State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Mississippi

Odds to go undefeated

Kansas 98% (89% to start the week)
Villanova 40% (30%)
Syracuse 76% (70%)
Kentucky 92% (76%)
Michigan State 0% (14%)
West Virginia 82% (62%)
Georgetown 0% (58%)
Purdue 100% (88%)
Texas 82% (50%)
Duke 85% (72%)
Kansas State 78% (56%)
Brigham Young 61% (66%)
Ohio State 97% (92%)
Tennessee 82% (74%)
New Mexico 75% (76%)
Wisconsin 74% (50%)
Gonzaga 33% (20%)
Vanderbilt 68% (50%)
Temple 49% (48%)
Baylor 52% (48%)
Georgia Tech 0% (12%)
Pittsburgh 0% (13%)
Butler 79% (74%)
Northern Iowa 91% (71%)
Mississippi 0% (14%)

Villanova, Gonzaga and Temple are all scheduled to stumble this weekend.

Really looking forward to the Villanova-Georgetown game as I think Villanova will be exposed.

Big 12 Dominance

John Gasaway did his weekly breakdown of in-conference play across the country. Here is how the Big 12 shapes up.

Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP

Big 12: Best offense plus best defense equals this....

Year after tempo-free year, Kansas looks this dominant within the Big 12. True, a lot of those years you could call into question the relative strength of the conference itself. But not in KU's national championship year of 2008, and not this year. With rivals like Texas, Kansas State, Missouri, and Baylor--two of whom are in the Big 12 North along with the Jayhawks--Kansas will come by any statistical dominance honestly this season. So far Bill Self's team is hegemonic just the same thanks to the league's best defense (fun fact: KU's conference opponents have made just 38 percent of their twos) and an offense that's even better.

02/01 AP Poll Odds to Win this Week

Using Kenpom data, here are the odds for each AP top 25 team to win out this week.

RANK	TEAM	RECORD
1	Kansas (54)	20-1
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 89%
	This Week: 2/3 at Colorado (92%), 2/6 vs. Nebraska (97%)
2	Villanova (4)	19-1
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 30%
	This Week: 2/2 vs. Seton Hall (85%), 2/6 at Georgetown (35%)
3	Syracuse (6)	21-1
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 70%
	This Week: 2/2 vs. Providence (94%), 2/7 at Cincinnati (74%)
4	Kentucky (1)	20-1
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 76%
	This Week: 2/2 vs. Mississippi (82%), 2/6 at LSU (93%)
5	Michigan State	19-3
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 14%
	This Week: 2/2 at Wisconsin (25%), 2/6 at Illinois (56%)
6	West Virginia	17-3
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 62%
	This Week: 2/3 vs. Pittsburgh (82%), 2/6 at St. John's (76%)
7	Georgetown	16-4
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 58%
	This Week: 2/3 vs. South Florida (89%), 2/6 vs. Villanova (65%)
8	Purdue	18-3
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 88%
	This Week: 2/4 at Indiana (88%)
9	Texas	18-3
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 50%
	This Week: 2/1 at Oklahoma State (62%), 2/6 at Oklahoma (81%)
10	Duke	17-4
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 72%
	This Week: 2/4 vs. Georgia Tech (86%), 2/6 at Boston College (84%)
10	Kansas State	17-4
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 56%
	This Week: 2/2 at Nebraska (74%), 2/6 at Iowa State (75%)
12	Brigham Young	21-2
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 66%
	This Week: 2/2 vs. TCU (98%), 2/6 at UNLV (67%)
13	Ohio State	16-6
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 92%
	This Week: 2/3 vs. Penn State (95%), 2/7 vs. Iowa (97%)
14	Tennessee	16-4
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 74%
	This Week: 2/4 at LSU (89%), 2/6 vs. South Carolina (83%)
15	New Mexico	20-3
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 76%
	This Week: 2/6 vs. San Diego State (76%)
16	Wisconsin	16-5
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 50%
	This Week: 2/2 vs. Michigan State (75%), 2/6 at Michigan (67%)
17	Gonzaga	17-4
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 20%
	This Week: 2/4 vs. Portland (70%), 2/6 at Memphis (28%)
18	Vanderbilt	16-4
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 50%
	This Week: 2/3 vs. Mississippi State (74%), 2/6 at Georgia (67%)
19	Temple	18-4
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 48%
	This Week: 2/3 vs. Duquesne (94%), 2/6 at Richmond (51%)
20	Baylor	16-4
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 48%
	This Week: 2/3 vs. Iowa State (90%), 2/6 at Texas A&M (53%)
21	Georgia Tech	16-5
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 12%
	This Week: 2/4 at Duke (14%), 2/6 vs. North Carolina State (86%)
22	Pittsburgh	16-5
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 13%
	This Week: 2/3 at West Virginia (18%), 2/6 vs. Seton Hall (74%)
23	Butler	18-4
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 74%
	This Week: 2/4 vs. Detroit (93%), 2/6 vs. Wright State (80%)
24	Northern Iowa	19-2
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 71%
	This Week: 2/3 vs. Wichita State (77%), 2/6 vs. Southern Illinois (92%)
25	Mississippi	16-5
	Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 14%
	This Week: 2/2 at Kentucky (18%), 2/6 vs. Alabama (77%)

Most likely to lose this week:

21. Georgia Tech 12%
22. Pittsburgh 13%
5. Michigan State 14%
25. Mississippi 14%
17. Gonzaga 20%
2. Villanova 30%
19. Temple 48%
20. Baylor 48%
9. Texas 50%
16. Wisconsin 50%
18. Vanderbilt 50%

01/31 Pomeroy Point Spreads

Updated Pomeroy ratings to reflect Saturday's action.

Kansas has distanced itself even further with a big win at Kansas State combined with a Duke loss at Georgetown. There is now a three point difference between the best and the rest.

Kansas favored by:

3 points: Duke
6 points: Syracuse, Wisconsin
7 points: Brigham Young, West Virginia
8 points: Purdue, Maryland, Kentucky, Texas, Georgetown
9 points: Kansas State, Ohio State, Missouri, Villanova, Baylor
10 points: Marquette, Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Florida State
11 points: Clemson, California, Utah St, Tennessee, Temple, Arizona St, Butler, Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Northern Iowa

Other Notables:

12 points: Louisville
13 points: Mississippi, Wake Forest, Mississippi St, Cornell
14 points: Connecticut, Michigan
16 points: North Carolina

Previous week's point spreads.

01/29 Updated odds going into the weekend

Updated odds to go undefeated this week heading into the weekend. 

8 losers so far: Kentucky, Georgetown, Brigham Young, Tennessee, Temple, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Baylor

Odds to go undefeated

Kentucky 0% (54% at start of week)
Kansas 66% (57%)
Villanova 100% (90%)
Syracuse 96% (74%)
Michigan State 87% (53%)
Texas 76% (72%)
Georgetown 0% (8%)
Duke 65% (57%)
West Virginia 81% (76%)
Purdue 95% (58%)
Kansas State 34% (14%)
Brigham Young 0% (64%)
Gonzaga 91% (84%)
Tennessee 0% (59%)
Temple 0% (59%)
Wisconsin 0% (38%)
Pittsburgh 61% (51%)
Mississippi 92% (71%)
Connecticut 0% (39%)
Ohio State 72% (62%)
Vanderbilt 29% (7%)
Georgia Tech 100% (67%)
New Mexico 83% (27%)
Baylor 0% (14%)
UAB 63% (39%

Kansas State and Vanderbilt are the only underdogs heading into the weekend. Could be a lot of chalk. Georgetown is also schedule to lose, but they already lost earlier in the week.

01/28 Teams that can win it all

Ken Pomeroy's system has two stats that have proven to be strong indicators for a team to be a National  Championship contender. Those two stats are the Adjusted Offense and Adjusted Defense numbers. Since the inception of Pomeroy's ratings, every National Championship team has had a top 20 ranking in both categories going into the NCAA tournament.

As of today, these are the teams that fall into the top 20 in both along with their respective rankings for adjusted offense and defense.

National Championship contenders:

Kansas
Adj Off: 2
Adj Def: 2

Duke
Adj Off: 1
Adj Def: 12

Syracuse
Adj Off: 5
Adj Def: 8

Brigham Young
Adj Off: 11
Adj Def: 16

Kansas State
Adj Off: 19
Adj Def: 20

Teams that are on the borderline:

West Virginia
Adj Off: 8
Adj Def: 22

Wisconsin
Adj Off: 28
Adj Def: 7

Texas
Adj Off: 23
Adj Def: 11

Maryland
Adj Off: 9
Adj Def: 30

Purdue
Adj Off: 21
Adj Def: 18

Kentucky
Adj Off: 14
Adj Def: 29

01/25 AP Poll Odds to Win this Week

Using KenPom data here are the odds for each top 25 team to win out this week.

1.	Kentucky (65)	19-0
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 54%
This Week: 1/26 at South Carolina (71%), 1/30 vs. Vanderbilt (76%)
2.	Kansas	18-1
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 57%
This Week: 1/25 vs. Missouri (87%), 1/30 at Kansas State (66%)
3.	Villanova	18-1
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 90%
This Week: 1/27 vs. Notre Dame (90%)
4.	Syracuse	19-1
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 74%
This Week: 1/25 vs. Georgetown (78%), 1/30 at DePaul (95%)
5.	Michigan State	17-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 53%
This Week: 1/26 at Michigan (61%), 1/30 vs. Northwestern (87%)
6.	Texas	17-2
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 72%
This Week: 1/27 vs. Texas Tech (93%), 1/30 vs. Baylor (77%)
7.	Georgetown	15-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 8%
This Week: 1/25 at Syracuse (22%), 1/30 vs. Duke (37%)
8.	Duke	16-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 57%
This Week: 1/27 vs. Florida State (90%), 1/30 at Georgetown (63%)
9.	West Virginia	15-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 76%
This Week: 1/26 at DePaul (94%), 1/30 vs. Louisville (81%)
10.	Purdue	16-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 58%
This Week: 1/28 vs. Wisconsin (62%), 1/31 vs. Penn State (94%)
11.	Kansas State	16-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 14%
This Week: 1/26 at Baylor (40%), 1/30 vs. Kansas (34%)
12.	Brigham Young	20-1
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 64%
This Week: 1/27 at New Mexico (67%), 1/30 vs. Utah (96%)
13.	Gonzaga	16-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 84%
This Week: 1/28 at Santa Clara (92%), 1/30 at San Francisco (91%)
14.	Tennessee	15-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 59%
This Week: 1/27 vs. Vanderbilt (72%), 1/31 vs. Florida (82%)
15.	Temple	17-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 59%
This Week: 1/27 at Charlotte (63%), 1/30 vs. La Salle (93%)
16.	Wisconsin	16-4
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 38%
This Week: 1/28 at Purdue (38%)
17.	Pittsburgh	15-4
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 51%
This Week: 1/28 vs. St. John's (84%), 1/31 at South Florida (61%)
18.	Mississippi	15-4
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 71%
This Week: 1/28 at Auburn (76%), 1/30 vs. Arkansas (93%)
19.	Connecticut	13-6
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 39%
This Week: 1/27 at Providence (67%), 1/30 vs. Marquette (58%)
20.	Ohio State	14-6
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 62%
This Week: 1/27 at Iowa (88%), 1/31 vs. Minnesota (71%)
21.	Vanderbilt	15-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 7%
This Week: 1/27 at Tennessee (28%), 1/30 at Kentucky (24%)
22.	Georgia Tech	14-5
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 67%
This Week: 1/28 vs. Wake Forest (67%), 1/30 vs. Kentucky State  (100%)
23.	New Mexico	18-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 27%
This Week: 1/27 vs. Brigham Young (33%), 1/30 at TCU (81%)
24.	Baylor	15-3
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 14%
This Week: 1/26 vs. Kansas State (60%), 1/30 at Texas (23%)
25.	UAB	17-2
Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 39%
This Week: 1/26 vs. Tulsa (67%), 1/30 vs. UTEP (58%)

Most likely to lose this week:

21. Vanderbilt 7%
7. Georgetown 8%
11. Kansas State 14%
24. Baylor 14%
16. Wisconsin 38%
23. New Mexico 27%
19. Connecticut 39%
25. UAB 39%

Last week the following teams lost along with their percentage chance to go undefeated going into the week of 1/18. 

Last week's losers:

Texas 34%
Duke 62%
Tennessee 54%
Pittsburgh 32%
Kansas State 44%
Clemson 13%
Georgia Tech 20%
Northern Iowa 40%
Ohio State 23%
Mississippi State 55%
North Carolina 61%
Baylor 8%

Kansas Still #1 in the KenPom Ratings

The Pomeroy ratings were just updated to reflect the past week's results. The Kansas Jayhawks sit on top of the ratings for the second week in a row.

A lot of times there are some pretty big gaps in terms of the quality of teams as you go down the ranks from team to team. I plugged the numbers in to see how the Pomeroy top 25 teams would fair against the Jayhawks. I then rounded off to categorize the teams in terms of how big of an underdog they would be if a game was held today on a neutral court.

KU favored by:

1 point: Duke
5 points: Syracuse, Brigham Young
6 points: Wisconsin
7 points: West Virginia, Texas
8 points: Purdue, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio State, Georgetown
9 points: Maryland, Kansas St, Michigan St, Tennessee, Clemson
10 points: Marquette, Villanova, Arizona St, Temple, Baylor, Old Dominion, Minnesota, Utah St, Florida St

Other Notables:

11 points: Pittsburgh
12 points: Connecticut, Mississippi, Mississippi St.
17 points: North Carolina

As you can see there is a pretty big drop-off in quality from Kansas and Duke to the next tier of teams.

It will also be interesting to see where Brigham Young ends up getting seeded in the NCAA tournament. The Pomeroy rating system values them quite a bit, but the AP voters have been reluctant to move them up.