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Click here to follow Grant on Twitter during the 2009 World Series of Poker.
Posted at 02:58 PM | Permalink
After half a week of action Kansas increased its margins with an impressive win at Texas along with other top teams struggling.
Kansas favored by:
2 points: DukePosted at 12:41 PM in College Basketball | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Here are the odds for each AP top 25 team to go undefeated this week according to KenPom.
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD | |
| 1 | Kansas (55) | 22-1 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 58% | |||
| This Week: 2/8 at Texas (60%), 2/13 vs. Iowa State (97%) | |||
| 2 | Syracuse (8) | 23-1 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 77% | |||
| This Week: 2/10 vs. Connecticut (91%), 2/14 vs. Louisville (85%) | |||
| 3 | Kentucky (2) | 22-1 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 68% | |||
| This Week: 2/9 vs. Alabama (90%), 2/13 vs. Tennessee (76%) | |||
| 4 | Villanova | 20-2 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 21% | |||
| This Week: 2/8 at West Virginia (23%), 2/13 vs. Providence (90%) | |||
| 5 | West Virginia | 19-3 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 48% | |||
| This Week: 2/8 vs. Villanova (77%), 2/12 at Pittsburgh (62%) | |||
| 6 | Purdue | 19-3 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 45% | |||
| This Week: 2/9 at Michigan State (46%), 2/13 vs. Iowa (97%) | |||
| 7 | Georgetown | 17-5 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 60% | |||
| This Week: 2/9 at Providence (69%), 2/14 at Rutgers (87%) | |||
| 8 | Duke | 19-4 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 66% | |||
| This Week: 2/10 at North Carolina (81%), 2/13 vs. Maryland (81%) | |||
| 9 | Kansas State | 19-4 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 93% | |||
| This Week: 2/13 vs. Colorado (93%) | |||
| 10 | Michigan State | 19-5 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 41% | |||
| This Week: 2/9 vs. Purdue (54%), 2/13 at Penn State (76%) | |||
| 11 | Wisconsin | 18-5 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 87% | |||
| This Week: 2/9 vs. Illinois (90%), 2/13 vs. Indiana (97%) | |||
| 12 | Tennessee | 18-4 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 9% | |||
| This Week: 2/9 at Vanderbilt (39%), 2/13 at Kentucky (24%) | |||
| 13 | Ohio State | 18-6 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 50% | |||
| This Week: 2/10 at Indiana (85%), 2/14 at Illinois (59%) | |||
| 14 | Texas | 19-4 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 37% | |||
| This Week: 2/8 vs. Kansas (40%), 2/13 vs. Nebraska (92%) | |||
| 15 | New Mexico | 21-3 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 23% | |||
| This Week: 2/10 at UNLV (32%), 2/13 at Utah (72%) | |||
| 16 | Gonzaga | 19-4 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 63% | |||
| This Week: 2/11 vs. Saint Mary's (66%), 2/13 vs. San Diego (96%) | |||
| 17 | Brigham Young | 22-3 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 99% | |||
| This Week: 2/13 vs. Air Force (99%) | |||
| 18 | Butler | 20-4 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 74% | |||
| This Week: 2/8 vs. Loyola (IL) (97%), 2/11 at Youngstown State (94%), 2/13 at Cleveland State (81%) | |||
| 19 | Northern Iowa | 21-2 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 60% | |||
| This Week: 2/10 at Drake (80%), 2/13 at Bradley (75%) | |||
| 20 | Georgia Tech | 17-6 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 20% | |||
| This Week: 2/10 at Miami (FL) (52%), 2/13 at Wake Forest (39%) | |||
| 21 | Temple | 19-5 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 74% | |||
| This Week: 2/13 vs. Rhode Island (74%) | |||
| 22 | Vanderbilt | 17-5 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 59% | |||
| This Week: 2/9 vs. Tennessee (61%), 2/13 vs. LSU (96%) | |||
| 23 | UNLV | 19-4 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 31% | |||
| This Week: 2/10 vs. New Mexico (68%), 2/13 at San Diego State (45%) | |||
| 24 | Baylor | 17-5 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 43% | |||
| This Week: 2/10 at Nebraska (70%), 2/13 vs. Missouri (62%) | |||
| 25 | Pittsburgh | 17-6 | |
| Chance to go undefeated this week: 37% | |||
| This Week: 2/8 vs. Robert Morris (97%), 2/12 vs. West Virginia (38%) | |||
Most likely to lose:
12. Tennessee 9%
20. Georgia Tech 20%
4. Villanova 21%
15. New Mexico 23%
23. UNLV 31%
14 Texas 37%
25. Pittsburgh 37%
10. Michigan St 41%
24. Baylor 43%
6. Purdue 45%
5. West Virginia 48%
13. Ohio State 50%
Posted at 12:45 PM in College Basketball | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Updated odds to go undefeated this week heading into to the weekend.
5 losers this week so far: Michigan State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Mississippi
Odds to go undefeated
Kansas 98% (89% to start the week)
Villanova 40% (30%)
Syracuse 76% (70%)
Kentucky 92% (76%)
Michigan State 0% (14%)
West Virginia 82% (62%)
Georgetown 0% (58%)
Purdue 100% (88%)
Texas 82% (50%)
Duke 85% (72%)
Kansas State 78% (56%)
Brigham Young 61% (66%)
Ohio State 97% (92%)
Tennessee 82% (74%)
New Mexico 75% (76%)
Wisconsin 74% (50%)
Gonzaga 33% (20%)
Vanderbilt 68% (50%)
Temple 49% (48%)
Baylor 52% (48%)
Georgia Tech 0% (12%)
Pittsburgh 0% (13%)
Butler 79% (74%)
Northern Iowa 91% (71%)
Mississippi 0% (14%)
Villanova, Gonzaga and Temple are all scheduled to stumble this weekend.
Really looking forward to the Villanova-Georgetown game as I think Villanova will be exposed.
Posted at 08:44 AM in College Basketball | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
John Gasaway did his weekly breakdown of in-conference play across the country. Here is how the Big 12 shapes up.
Pace: possessions per 40 minutes
PPP: points per possession Opp. PPP: opponent PPP
EM: efficiency margin (PPP - Opp. PPP
Big 12: Best offense plus best defense equals this....
Year after tempo-free year, Kansas looks this dominant within the Big 12. True, a lot of those years you could call into question the relative strength of the conference itself. But not in KU's national championship year of 2008, and not this year. With rivals like Texas, Kansas State, Missouri, and Baylor--two of whom are in the Big 12 North along with the Jayhawks--Kansas will come by any statistical dominance honestly this season. So far Bill Self's team is hegemonic just the same thanks to the league's best defense (fun fact: KU's conference opponents have made just 38 percent of their twos) and an offense that's even better.
Posted at 11:35 AM in College Basketball | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Using Kenpom data, here are the odds for each AP top 25 team to win out this week.
| RANK | TEAM | RECORD |
| 1 | Kansas (54) | 20-1 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 89% | ||
| This Week: 2/3 at Colorado (92%), 2/6 vs. Nebraska (97%) | ||
| 2 | Villanova (4) | 19-1 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 30% | ||
| This Week: 2/2 vs. Seton Hall (85%), 2/6 at Georgetown (35%) | ||
| 3 | Syracuse (6) | 21-1 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 70% | ||
| This Week: 2/2 vs. Providence (94%), 2/7 at Cincinnati (74%) | ||
| 4 | Kentucky (1) | 20-1 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 76% | ||
| This Week: 2/2 vs. Mississippi (82%), 2/6 at LSU (93%) | ||
| 5 | Michigan State | 19-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 14% | ||
| This Week: 2/2 at Wisconsin (25%), 2/6 at Illinois (56%) | ||
| 6 | West Virginia | 17-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 62% | ||
| This Week: 2/3 vs. Pittsburgh (82%), 2/6 at St. John's (76%) | ||
| 7 | Georgetown | 16-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 58% | ||
| This Week: 2/3 vs. South Florida (89%), 2/6 vs. Villanova (65%) | ||
| 8 | Purdue | 18-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 88% | ||
| This Week: 2/4 at Indiana (88%) | ||
| 9 | Texas | 18-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 50% | ||
| This Week: 2/1 at Oklahoma State (62%), 2/6 at Oklahoma (81%) | ||
| 10 | Duke | 17-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 72% | ||
| This Week: 2/4 vs. Georgia Tech (86%), 2/6 at Boston College (84%) | ||
| 10 | Kansas State | 17-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 56% | ||
| This Week: 2/2 at Nebraska (74%), 2/6 at Iowa State (75%) | ||
| 12 | Brigham Young | 21-2 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 66% | ||
| This Week: 2/2 vs. TCU (98%), 2/6 at UNLV (67%) | ||
| 13 | Ohio State | 16-6 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 92% | ||
| This Week: 2/3 vs. Penn State (95%), 2/7 vs. Iowa (97%) | ||
| 14 | Tennessee | 16-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 74% | ||
| This Week: 2/4 at LSU (89%), 2/6 vs. South Carolina (83%) | ||
| 15 | New Mexico | 20-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 76% | ||
| This Week: 2/6 vs. San Diego State (76%) | ||
| 16 | Wisconsin | 16-5 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 50% | ||
| This Week: 2/2 vs. Michigan State (75%), 2/6 at Michigan (67%) | ||
| 17 | Gonzaga | 17-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 20% | ||
| This Week: 2/4 vs. Portland (70%), 2/6 at Memphis (28%) | ||
| 18 | Vanderbilt | 16-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 50% | ||
| This Week: 2/3 vs. Mississippi State (74%), 2/6 at Georgia (67%) | ||
| 19 | Temple | 18-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 48% | ||
| This Week: 2/3 vs. Duquesne (94%), 2/6 at Richmond (51%) | ||
| 20 | Baylor | 16-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 48% | ||
| This Week: 2/3 vs. Iowa State (90%), 2/6 at Texas A&M (53%) | ||
| 21 | Georgia Tech | 16-5 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 12% | ||
| This Week: 2/4 at Duke (14%), 2/6 vs. North Carolina State (86%) | ||
| 22 | Pittsburgh | 16-5 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 13% | ||
| This Week: 2/3 at West Virginia (18%), 2/6 vs. Seton Hall (74%) | ||
| 23 | Butler | 18-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 74% | ||
| This Week: 2/4 vs. Detroit (93%), 2/6 vs. Wright State (80%) | ||
| 24 | Northern Iowa | 19-2 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 71% | ||
| This Week: 2/3 vs. Wichita State (77%), 2/6 vs. Southern Illinois (92%) | ||
| 25 | Mississippi | 16-5 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 14% | ||
| This Week: 2/2 at Kentucky (18%), 2/6 vs. Alabama (77%) |
Most likely to lose this week:
21. Georgia Tech 12%
22. Pittsburgh 13%
5. Michigan State 14%
25. Mississippi 14%
17. Gonzaga 20%
2. Villanova 30%
19. Temple 48%
20. Baylor 48%
9. Texas 50%
16. Wisconsin 50%
18. Vanderbilt 50%
Posted at 12:49 PM in College Basketball | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Updated Pomeroy ratings to reflect Saturday's action.
Kansas has distanced itself even further with a big win at Kansas State combined with a Duke loss at Georgetown. There is now a three point difference between the best and the rest.
Kansas favored by:
3 points: Duke
6 points: Syracuse, Wisconsin
7 points: Brigham Young, West Virginia
8 points: Purdue, Maryland, Kentucky, Texas, Georgetown
9 points: Kansas State, Ohio State, Missouri, Villanova, Baylor
10 points: Marquette, Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Florida State
11 points: Clemson, California, Utah St, Tennessee, Temple, Arizona St, Butler, Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Xavier, Vanderbilt, Northern Iowa
Other Notables:
12 points: Louisville
13 points: Mississippi, Wake Forest, Mississippi St, Cornell
14 points: Connecticut, Michigan
16 points: North Carolina
Posted at 11:15 PM in College Basketball | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Updated odds to go undefeated this week heading into the weekend.
8 losers so far: Kentucky, Georgetown, Brigham Young, Tennessee, Temple, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Baylor
Odds to go undefeated
Kentucky 0% (54% at start of week)
Kansas 66% (57%)
Villanova 100% (90%)
Syracuse 96% (74%)
Michigan State 87% (53%)
Texas 76% (72%)
Georgetown 0% (8%)
Duke 65% (57%)
West Virginia 81% (76%)
Purdue 95% (58%)
Kansas State 34% (14%)
Brigham Young 0% (64%)
Gonzaga 91% (84%)
Tennessee 0% (59%)
Temple 0% (59%)
Wisconsin 0% (38%)
Pittsburgh 61% (51%)
Mississippi 92% (71%)
Connecticut 0% (39%)
Ohio State 72% (62%)
Vanderbilt 29% (7%)
Georgia Tech 100% (67%)
New Mexico 83% (27%)
Baylor 0% (14%)
UAB 63% (39%
Kansas State and Vanderbilt are the only underdogs heading into the weekend. Could be a lot of chalk. Georgetown is also schedule to lose, but they already lost earlier in the week.
Posted at 01:18 AM in College Basketball | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Ken Pomeroy's system has two stats that have proven to be strong indicators for a team to be a National Championship contender. Those two stats are the Adjusted Offense and Adjusted Defense numbers. Since the inception of Pomeroy's ratings, every National Championship team has had a top 20 ranking in both categories going into the NCAA tournament.
As of today, these are the teams that fall into the top 20 in both along with their respective rankings for adjusted offense and defense.
National Championship contenders:
Kansas
Adj Off: 2
Adj Def: 2
Duke
Adj Off: 1
Adj Def: 12
Syracuse
Adj Off: 5
Adj Def: 8
Brigham Young
Adj Off: 11
Adj Def: 16
Kansas State
Adj Off: 19
Adj Def: 20
Teams that are on the borderline:
West Virginia
Adj Off: 8
Adj Def: 22
Wisconsin
Adj Off: 28
Adj Def: 7
Texas
Adj Off: 23
Adj Def: 11
Maryland
Adj Off: 9
Adj Def: 30
Purdue
Adj Off: 21
Adj Def: 18
Kentucky
Adj Off: 14
Adj Def: 29
Posted at 11:22 AM in College Basketball | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Using KenPom data here are the odds for each top 25 team to win out this week.
| 1. | Kentucky (65) | 19-0 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 54% | ||
| This Week: 1/26 at South Carolina (71%), 1/30 vs. Vanderbilt (76%) | ||
| 2. | Kansas | 18-1 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 57% | ||
| This Week: 1/25 vs. Missouri (87%), 1/30 at Kansas State (66%) | ||
| 3. | Villanova | 18-1 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 90% | ||
| This Week: 1/27 vs. Notre Dame (90%) | ||
| 4. | Syracuse | 19-1 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 74% | ||
| This Week: 1/25 vs. Georgetown (78%), 1/30 at DePaul (95%) | ||
| 5. | Michigan State | 17-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 53% | ||
| This Week: 1/26 at Michigan (61%), 1/30 vs. Northwestern (87%) | ||
| 6. | Texas | 17-2 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 72% | ||
| This Week: 1/27 vs. Texas Tech (93%), 1/30 vs. Baylor (77%) | ||
| 7. | Georgetown | 15-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 8% | ||
| This Week: 1/25 at Syracuse (22%), 1/30 vs. Duke (37%) | ||
| 8. | Duke | 16-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 57% | ||
| This Week: 1/27 vs. Florida State (90%), 1/30 at Georgetown (63%) | ||
| 9. | West Virginia | 15-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 76% | ||
| This Week: 1/26 at DePaul (94%), 1/30 vs. Louisville (81%) | ||
| 10. | Purdue | 16-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 58% | ||
| This Week: 1/28 vs. Wisconsin (62%), 1/31 vs. Penn State (94%) | ||
| 11. | Kansas State | 16-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 14% | ||
| This Week: 1/26 at Baylor (40%), 1/30 vs. Kansas (34%) | ||
| 12. | Brigham Young | 20-1 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 64% | ||
| This Week: 1/27 at New Mexico (67%), 1/30 vs. Utah (96%) | ||
| 13. | Gonzaga | 16-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 84% | ||
| This Week: 1/28 at Santa Clara (92%), 1/30 at San Francisco (91%) | ||
| 14. | Tennessee | 15-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 59% | ||
| This Week: 1/27 vs. Vanderbilt (72%), 1/31 vs. Florida (82%) | ||
| 15. | Temple | 17-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 59% | ||
| This Week: 1/27 at Charlotte (63%), 1/30 vs. La Salle (93%) | ||
| 16. | Wisconsin | 16-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 38% | ||
| This Week: 1/28 at Purdue (38%) | ||
| 17. | Pittsburgh | 15-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 51% | ||
| This Week: 1/28 vs. St. John's (84%), 1/31 at South Florida (61%) | ||
| 18. | Mississippi | 15-4 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 71% | ||
| This Week: 1/28 at Auburn (76%), 1/30 vs. Arkansas (93%) | ||
| 19. | Connecticut | 13-6 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 39% | ||
| This Week: 1/27 at Providence (67%), 1/30 vs. Marquette (58%) | ||
| 20. | Ohio State | 14-6 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 62% | ||
| This Week: 1/27 at Iowa (88%), 1/31 vs. Minnesota (71%) | ||
| 21. | Vanderbilt | 15-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 7% | ||
| This Week: 1/27 at Tennessee (28%), 1/30 at Kentucky (24%) | ||
| 22. | Georgia Tech | 14-5 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 67% | ||
| This Week: 1/28 vs. Wake Forest (67%), 1/30 vs. Kentucky State (100%) | ||
| 23. | New Mexico | 18-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 27% | ||
| This Week: 1/27 vs. Brigham Young (33%), 1/30 at TCU (81%) | ||
| 24. | Baylor | 15-3 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 14% | ||
| This Week: 1/26 vs. Kansas State (60%), 1/30 at Texas (23%) | ||
| 25. | UAB | 17-2 |
| Combined chance to go undefeated this week: 39% | ||
| This Week: 1/26 vs. Tulsa (67%), 1/30 vs. UTEP (58%) | ||
Most likely to lose this week:
21. Vanderbilt 7%
7. Georgetown 8%
11. Kansas State 14%
24. Baylor 14%
16. Wisconsin 38%
23. New Mexico 27%
19. Connecticut 39%
25. UAB 39%
Last week the following teams lost along with their percentage chance to go undefeated going into the week of 1/18.
Last week's losers:
Texas 34%
Duke 62%
Tennessee 54%
Pittsburgh 32%
Kansas State 44%
Clemson 13%
Georgia Tech 20%
Northern Iowa 40%
Ohio State 23%
Mississippi State 55%
North Carolina 61%
Baylor 8%
Posted at 11:27 AM in College Basketball | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Pomeroy ratings were just updated to reflect the past week's results. The Kansas Jayhawks sit on top of the ratings for the second week in a row.
A lot of times there are some pretty big gaps in terms of the quality of teams as you go down the ranks from team to team. I plugged the numbers in to see how the Pomeroy top 25 teams would fair against the Jayhawks. I then rounded off to categorize the teams in terms of how big of an underdog they would be if a game was held today on a neutral court.
KU favored by:
1 point: Duke
5 points: Syracuse, Brigham Young
6 points: Wisconsin
7 points: West Virginia, Texas
8 points: Purdue, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio State, Georgetown
9 points: Maryland, Kansas St, Michigan St, Tennessee, Clemson
10 points: Marquette, Villanova, Arizona St, Temple, Baylor, Old Dominion, Minnesota, Utah St, Florida St
Other Notables:
11 points: Pittsburgh
12 points: Connecticut, Mississippi, Mississippi St.
17 points: North Carolina
As you can see there is a pretty big drop-off in quality from Kansas and Duke to the next tier of teams.
It will also be interesting to see where Brigham Young ends up getting seeded in the NCAA tournament. The Pomeroy rating system values them quite a bit, but the AP voters have been reluctant to move them up.
Posted at 09:50 PM in College Basketball | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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